Intensity of Magnetization of Subaerial and Submarine Basalts and its Possible Change with Time     

Michel Prévot  Sherman Grommé 《Geophysical Journal International》1975,40(2):207-224

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Call For Papers     

Michel Benarie 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,109(1):109-109

Call for Papers

Call For Papers  相似文献   

Development and sensitivity analysis of a model for assessing stratification and safety of Lake Nyos during artificial degassing     

Martin?SchmidEmail author  Andreas?Lorke  Alfred?Wüest  Michel?Halbwachs  Gregory?Tanyileke 《Ocean Dynamics》2003,53(3):288-301

To prevent the recurrence of a disastrous eruption of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from Lake Nyos, a degassing plan has been set up for the lake. Since there are concerns that the degassing of the lake may reduce the stability of the density stratification, there is an urgent need for a simulation tool to predict the evolution of the lake stratification in different scenarios. This paper describes the development of a numerical model to predict the CO₂ and dissolved solids concentrations, and the temperature structure as well as the stability of the water column of Lake Nyos. The model is tested with profiles of CO₂ concentrations and temperature taken in the years 1986 to 1996. It reproduces well the general mixing patterns observed in the lake. However, the intensity of the mixing tends to be overestimated in the epilimnion and underestimated in the monimolimnion. The overestimation of the mixing depth in the epilimnion is caused either by the parameterization of the k-epsilon model, or by the uncertainty in the calculation of the surface heat fluxes. The simulated mixing depth is highly sensitive to the surface heat fluxes, and errors in the mixing depth propagate from one year to the following. A precise simulation of the mixolimnion deepening therefore requires high accuracy in the meteorological forcing and the parameterization of the heat fluxes. Neither the meteorological data nor the formulae for the calculation of the heat fluxes are available with the necessary precision. Consequently, it will be indispensable to consider different forcing scenarios in the safety analysis in order to obtain robust boundary conditions for safe degassing. The input of temperature and CO₂ to the lake bottom can be adequately simulated for the years 1986 to 1996 with a constant sublacustrine source of 18 l s^–1 with a CO₂ concentration of 0.395 mol l^–1 and a temperature of 26 °C. The results of this study indicate that the model needs to be calibrated with more detailed field data before using it for its final purpose: the prediction of the stability and the safety of Lake Nyos during the degassing process.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard  相似文献   

From Magnitudes to Diameters: The Albedo Distribution of Near Earth Objects and the Earth Collision Hazard     

A. MorbidelliR. Jedicke  W.F. BottkeP. Michel  E.F. Tedesco 《Icarus》2002,158(2):329-342

A recently published model of the Near Earth Object (NEO) orbital-magnitude distribution (Bottke et al., 2002, Icarus156, 399-433.) relies on five intermediate sources for the NEO population: the ν₆ resonance, the 3:1 resonance, the outer portion of the main belt (i.e., 2.8-3.5 AU), the Mars-crossing population adjacent to the main belt, and the Jupiter family comet population. The model establishes the relative contribution of these sources to the NEO population. By computing the albedo distribution of the bodies in and/or near each of the five sources, we can deduce the albedo distribution of the NEO population as a function of semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination. A problem with this strategy, however, is that we do not know a priori the albedo distribution of main belt asteroids over the same size range as observed NEOs (diameter D<10 km). To overcome this problem, we determined the albedo distribution of large asteroids in and/or near each NEO source region and used these results to deduce the albedo distribution of smaller asteroids in the same regions. This method requires that we make some assumptions about the absolute magnitude distributions of both asteroid families and background asteroids. Our solution was to extrapolate the observed absolute magnitude distributions of the families up to some threshold value H_thr, beyond which we assumed that the families' absolute magnitude distributions were background-like.We found that H_thr=14.5 provides the best match to the color vs heliocentric distance distribution observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. With this value of H_thr our model predicts that the debiased ratio between dark and bright (albedo smaller or larger than 0.089) objects in any absolute-magnitude-limited sample of the NEO population is 0.25±0.02. Once the observational biases are properly taken into account, this agrees very well with the observed C/S ratio (0.165 for H<20). The dark/bright ratio of NEOs increases to 0.87±0.05 if a size-limited sample is considered. We estimate that the total number of NEOs larger than a kilometer is 855±110, which, compared to the total number of NEOs with H<18 (963±120), shows that the usually assumed conversion H=18?D=1 km slightly overestimates the number of kilometer-size objects.Combining our orbital distribution model with the new albedo distribution model, and assuming that the density of bright and dark bodies is 2.7 and 1.3 g/cm³, respectively, we estimate that the Earth should undergo a 1000 megaton collision every 63,000±8000 years. On average, the bodies capable of producing 1000 megaton of impact energy are those with H<20.6. The NEOs discovered so far carry only 18±2% of this collision probability.  相似文献   

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale     

Jean-Claude Andr  Jean-Yves Caneill  Michel Dqu  Philippe Rogel  Laurent Terray  Yves Tourre 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2002,334(16):1115

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.  相似文献   

A field study of the coupled effects of aquifer stratification,fluid density,and groundwater fluctuations on dispersivity assessments     

Robert S. Woumeni  Michel Vauclin 《Advances in water resources》2006

A number of experimental studies have tackled the issue of solute transport parameter assessments either in the laboratory or in the field. But yet, the behavior of a plume in the field under density driven forces, is not well known due to possible development of instabilities. Some field tracer tests on the fate of plumes denser than native groundwater such as those encountered under waste disposal facilities, have pointed out the processes of sinking and splitting at the early stage of migration. The process of dispersion was widely investigated, but the range of dispersivity values obtained from either experimental tests, or numerical and theoretical calculations is still very large, even for the same type of aquifers. These discrepancies were considered to be essentially caused by soil heterogeneities and scale effects. In the meantime, studies on the influence of sinking and fingering have remained more scarce. The objective of the work is to analyze how transport parameters such as dispersivities can be affected by unstable conditions, which lead to plume sinking and fingering. A series of tracer tests were carried out to study under natural conditions, the transport of a dense chloride solution injected in a shallow two-layered aquifer. Two types of experiments were performed: in the first type, source injection was such that the plume could travel downward from one layer to the other of higher pore velocity, and in the second one, the migration took place only in the faster layer. The results suggest some new insights in the processes occurring at the early stages of a dense plume migration moving in a stratified aquifer under groundwater fluctuations, which can be summarized through the following points: (i) Above a stability criterion threshold, a fingering process and a multi modal plume transport take place, but local dispersivities can be cautiously derived, using breakthrough curves matching. (ii) When water table is subject to some cycling or rising, the plume can be significantly distorted in the transverse direction, leading to unusual values of the ratio between longitudinal and transverse dispersivities. (iii) Under stable conditions, for example in the case of straightforward injection in the faster aquifer layer, longitudinal dispersivity is greater than the transverse component as usually encountered, and the obtained transport parameters are closed to macro dispersivity values, which reach their asymptotic limit at very short distances. (iv) The classical scale effect about the varying dispersivity at short distances could be a process mainly due to the distance required for a plume stabilization.  相似文献   

Comparing 20 years of precipitation estimates from different sources over the world ocean     

Karine Béranger  Bernard Barnier  Sergei Gulev  Michel Crépon 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(2):104-138

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Luminescence investigation of loess and tephra from Halfway House section, Central Alaska     

Marie Auclair  Michel Lamothe  France Lagroix  Subir K. Banerjee 《Quaternary Geochronology》2007,2(1-4):34-38

Infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) properties of the Old Crow tephra and bracketing loess from the Halfway House site in Central Alaska are investigated in order to test newly developed techniques, including SAR and recently proposed fading corrections. Loess samples investigated show a standard growth of luminescence with regenerative dose while the tephra sample is less sensitive by an order of magnitude and saturates at lower dose. The growth curves obtained using multiple-aliquots regeneration (MAR) saturate at a higher value than those with the single-aliquot regeneration (SAR) protocol. Fading rate determinations for these samples are shown to be imprecise and no noticeable difference was observed between loess and tephra materials. Anomalous fading corrections using an average g value of 5% are applied to the natural test dose signal intensity using the dose rate correction (DRC) method. IRSL ages obtained for loess are in agreement with the expected age while the tephra age is lower than expected, suggesting the measured fading rate is underestimated for this material.  相似文献   

云南澜沧-耿马Ms7.6地震的完全库仑破裂应力变化与后续地震的动态、静态应力触发   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴小平  虎雄林  Michel Bouchon  黄雍  胡家富  解朝娣  王绍晋  胡毅力 《中国科学D辑》2007,37(6):746-752

计算和研究了1988年云南澜沧-耿马Ms7.6地震产生的完全库仑破裂应力变化的时空演化图像, 对继澜沧地震13 min后发生的耿马M7.2地震的应力触发问题进行了分析, 同时也对澜沧-耿马地震后24 d内发生的Ms5.0~6.9后续强余震的应力触发问题进行了探讨. 结果显示, 澜沧地震断层破裂产生的完全库仑破裂应力变化空间分布图像具有很强的非对称性, 正值的动态和静态库仑破裂应力变化区域均具有与强余震分布位置吻合较好的现象. 耿马Ms7.2地震受到了澜沧Ms7.6地震产生动态和静态库仑破裂应力的触发作用; 绝大多数后续强余震受到了动、静态库仑破裂应力的综合触发作用.  相似文献   

Correcting superconducting gravity time-series using rainfall modelling at the Vienna and Membach stations and application to Earth tide analysis     

Bruno Meurers  Michel Van Camp  Toon Petermans 《Journal of Geodesy》2007,81(11):703-712

We demonstrate the possibility to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of superconducting gravity time-series by correcting for local hydrological effects. Short-term atmospheric events associated with heavy rain induce step-like gravity signals that deteriorate the frequency spectrum estimates. Based on 4D modeling constrained by high temporal resolution rain gauge data, rainfall admittances for the Vienna and Membach superconducting gravity stations are calculated. This allows routine correction for Newtonian rain water effects, which reduces the standard deviation of residuals after tidal parameter adjustment by 10%. It also improves the correction of steps of instrumental origin when they coincide with step-like water mass signals.  相似文献